A surprisingly accurate formula for predicting an idea's success
I've been thinking about the old question of "idea vs execution" and just came up with the following formula:
success = execution * 3 ^ idea
If I furthermore set
MRR = success * 10
then this simple formula predicts the income from my various projects from the past 7 years amazingly well! Here's a table:
fman.io idea: 2, execution: 5, calc. MRR: €450, actual MRR: €600
terminerinnerung.org idea: 3, execution: 5, calc. MRR: €1350, actual MRR: € 1900
omaha-consulting.com idea: 3, execution: 4, calc. MRR: €1080, actual MRR: €1200
[Another project] idea: 1, execution: 5, calc. MRR: €150, actual MRR: €50
idea and execution should be numbers between 1 and 10. The former should indicate how much business potential you feel the idea has. The latter how much of this potential you feel you can (or are) capturing.
Does this formula work for you as well?
Indie hackers selling to indie hackers?
Increasingly, I feel that the market you choose has an outsized impact on the success of your company.
(Example: https://justinjackson.ca/niche)
NIce article. I believe you can quite freely swap
ideain my formula withmarket, andexecutionby% of market I can capture. It's very similar.Ok... So an idea is evaluated relative to what? Also, doesn't your own bias play into how you evaluate an idea? It's important to point out that you would need to double blind evaluate an idea before and after it has an MRR.
What about all the good ideas with great execution that never made it off the ground because the the market timing wasn't right?
Maybe the formula works better in reverse for finding the validity of an idea after a product has a return and having a good idea on that companiy's execution, but then again, the value of an idea only exists in the mind of your target audience in the first place.
First of all: Obviously, the formula is just a heuristic. I feel like much of your post is "but this won't always work and it won't be precise". Yes. Of course.
Second, I've been an indie hacker for 7 years. I do feel like this experience has given me a better feel for what a good idea is, and what isn't. So here too, yes of course you're right and I may be retro-fitting my theory to the data. But given how well it works, I feel there is also some predictive quality to the formula.
Buddy. I'm just asking you questions. No need to get defensive. Also, try not to make an argument from authority. I love your product, fman, but dude, that doesn't mean you can pull magical formulas from your butt.
Before you claim your formula is predictive, actually prove it is predictive
Okay. "Buddy." Responding to criticism is defensive by definition. So yes, my reply was defensive by its very nature.
Second, I wasn't making an argument from authority. I wasn't saying "I'm so smart, so your points are invalid". You were claiming it's not possible to judge an idea. I think it is possible to make a reasonable guess. And I expressed that I feel that it's possible to get better at this with time.
But what I guess you really meant with "defensive" is that you didn't like my tone. Well, I didn't (and don't) like yours either. I took time out of my day to share something I found interesting. I have nothing to gain from this. I'm not selling anything. It's just a waste of time, really. I did it because I feel it may be helpful for others, including you. Your reply was, and is, rude and unappreciative which "pulling out of your butt" again shows. Doesn't exactly make me want to come here again and share other things with the community.
Finally, you make it sound like the formula has zero basis in reality. Idk, did you read the table and numbers I posted from my real businesses? Or did you simply not understand them? Real-world numbers aren't exactly what I'd call made up.
But okay, so you feel the formula is "made up" and doesn't describe reality. It's kind of an obvious point that reality is more complex, but fair enough. But you could have criticized it so much more easily. Plug in other numbers and show where the formula breaks down. Maybe prefix it with "hey, thanks for sharing". Instead, you took many words to basically say what I took time to share is like something else that comes from the butt. Great contribution. Buddy.
I'm outta here.
Welp, it wasn't my intent to strike you down. Right now this all feels like a miscommunication, which I take full accountability for. I'll admit I have a bad habit of being blunt in my remarks, but I would feel bad if you left this conversation with a bad taste in your mouth.
I'm also not saying, "Sorry if this ruined your day, huck-yuck!". I truthfully think it's important to see what I've done wrong in a situation, because the last thing I want is for free conversation to stop.
You also might not share this sentiment, but I'm sure, based on the livelyness of this interaction, I would one day love to get together with you and have a nice, heated debate, in which I would probably continue to be an asshole. But I swear it's more endearing in person.
Again, love fman, it seriously streamlined my workflow in a way that I'm actually appreciative to you for. I work for a non profit that designs vaccine carriers to help struggling villages in third world countries receive immunizations that save hundreds of lives. I just thought you would like to know that.
Godspeed dude, still disagree with you though 😉
Hey man, thank you for the nice message. I guess I took what you wrote the wrong way, and added some snark of my own. Sorry about that. I'm very happy for you to disagree, and you're certainly right that a formula can't capture the complexity involved. I'm also glad to hear you are liking fman, especially if you are using it in such a good project. Godspeed to you too 👌
Works quite well for my main projects, too!
Idea 2/10, Execution 5/10, Formula gives 450€/m, real is ~600€/m.
Nice idea, will save it for further estimates.
How have you tested this formula?
With the table above?
How you know your idea is a 2 or 9? I mean most ideas sound like a 8 in the beginning and then they keep going down after market research lol...
Of course you don't know for sure. But I feel that I get better with experience at judging ideas.
It may have some potential..I will have to work with it more .
This is my current formula..its not mathematical , however..if you apply it to business you will find it has some application
-It is a bad thing to run out of airspeed, altitude, and ideas all at the same time.
This comment was deleted 5 years ago.